The following table shows the total number of goals scored by the home side in their last Eight premier league home matches, and the goals conceded by the away side over the same period in their away matches. The totals for the promoted sides are still provisional
This week it is Arsenal who look to have the best chance of goals, they just edge out Liverpool who despite not scoring in their last home encounter at the weekend, have still scored an impressive Twenty One goals in the last Eight. They do however face a tighter defence. WBA only concede just over one goal per match on the road.
Those chosing their captains from the Arsenal match appear to be chosing the best fixture, while a captain from Liverpool would also be an option, however with so much unpredictability over who will score the points, maybe that option is better left alone.
Other teams who keep it very tight away from home are Southampton, Man U and Tottenham all Three conceding no more than an average of one goal per match.
In theory Hull are up against the weakest away side in Stoke. However so far Hull at home have not exactly been prolific.
In terms of clean sheets, Everton at the bottom of the table looks the best bet, while Watford and Tottenham follow, but scores over Twenty are not ideal when looking for clean sheets.
The following table shows the goals conceded by the home side in their last Eight home fixtures. The away sides show the number of goals they have scored away from home over the same period
Tottenham look by far the most likely away side to score this week, in what looks generally to be a tough week for the teams on the road. Tottenham should score a couple in this fixture, if Son starts maybe it will be his week to shine.
The rest of the scores are very low. This looks the best week so far for the home sides and there looks to be plenty of clean sheet potential. Liverpool look to be the best chance of a clean sheet, they have been surprisingly tight at home despite only keeping one clean sheet all season. Clyne and Lovren could be in for another good week.
Leicester also look a standout for a clean sheet, more bad news for Benteke owners. Leicester have only conceded a ridiculously low Three goals in their last Eight home matches. Only Swansea have scored a goal against them this season. Maybe Leicester defenders should be appearing in more Fantasy sides.
Man C, Burnley, Arsenal and Chelsea also look sides with a good chance of a clean sheet. While all the other home sides except Bournemouth can be fairly optimistic.
Captain pick for the form tables
Last week the form table highlighted Southampton as the best opportunity for goals, and Captain Austin obliged with Thirteen points. This week the captain will be the highest ranked Arsenal player on the Fantasy Football scout poll. Currently that is Sanchez
The Six week rankings have been updated, and are designed to show the best options from Gw 9 to GW 14 . There have been a number of significant moves this week
The top Three are generally considered the best current options, however Bonkers has downgraded Aguero slightly, and unusually he is not at the top. Indeed a couple more blanks and he could slip out of the top Three altogether.
Austin has seen a dramatic rise, the spearhead of the Southampton attack and on penalties, he looks a very enticing option for that third striker role. They have a few tricky fixtures, however there are a few tasty ones in between.
Next up are Two Leicester players.Leicester have recently struggled against tough opposition, however their fixtures are improving. Personally I am not convinced and prefer some of the cheaper options lower down like Deeney and Wilson.
The big faller this week is Ibrahimovic, all the way down from third spot. Not only did he fail to gain any attacking points, he also had very poor stats this week. He will score at some point, but looks to be terrible value for money
The top of the midfield list is still De Bruyne , just ahead of Walcott and Sanchez. The problem with De Bruyne is he could potentially see some rotation, although Guardiola may come to realise that the ultra competitive premier league makes too much tinkering a risky business.
The Liverpool midfielders have been taking it in turns to leapfrog one another. Milner is currently considered the best option, although that will no doubt change.
Sterling is still fairly high in the ranking list, although he has slipped a little in the last few weeks. Two notable newcomers are Son and Allen. Personally I consider Son too much of a rotation risk. Allen has a more settled role for now and Stoke have some fine looking fixtures.
Plenty appear to be put off Allen as a Fourth mid, perversely because they consider him too cheap for the role. Considered alone on his actual output, playing position, current form and fixtures then he makes a perfect Fourth midfielder, in the short term at least.
The Robot’s team currently has Two free transfer and 1.2 Million in the bank. The Two weakest links currently are Eriksen in midfield and in attack Defoe is the weakest link.
Eriksen takes priority as the Robot currently has no suitable captain according to its own one week captain picks. The highest ranked midfielder that can be bought in for Eriksen is Walcott, as De Bruyne is too expensive. So that will be this weeks transfer, the second will be saved.
Walcott will become the captain for this week.
This week Sanchez is given the nod. Midfielders occupy the top Four positions. Aguero despite having a home fixture has fallen way down the list. The Robot is not impressed by recent performances. As for Ibrahimovic, I have only included him to show just how low he is.
Arsenal have champions league this week, it could have a bearing on selection etc, however I thought it a good idea to put the picks up early as some find them useful when making transfer decisions.
So far this season the Bonkers picks are well ahead in the polls. When you double the points for captaincy, picking the Robots selection instead of the polls would be worth an extra Twenty points this season so far.
Notice from this table that Sanchez, this weeks Robot pick, and probably also the top pick in the polls has so far dissapointed when chosen. The Robot has chosen him twice before and only has Four points to show for it.The Fantasy scout poll has chosen him twice also in different weeks, again with not very satisfactory results.
That is Three separate weeks with fairly poor returns. Could it be he is too unpredictable a player to be trusted with the armband? Food for thought. Maybe it should be Walcott sitting at the top of the pile.
When you compare with Aguero who we are all currently cursing, he has been a very reliable pick, especially for the Fantasy scout poll. So try not to curse that minus score too much as he still remains best by test when topping the poll. If you took out The scores of Aguero then the performance of the polls would have been dire so far. While the Robot apears far better when choosing alternatives
Unlike all of those missed penalties in GW8, you simply can’t afford to miss this episode of Always Cheating. Josh rejoins the podcast after his brief paternity leave and he and Brandon discuss whether to buy, sell, or hold onto such divisive fantasy assets as Capoue, Allen, Ibrahimovic, Costa, Antonio, and Alli. We also pull up the stats on cheap “third striker” options, including the in-form Charlie Austin and more mercurial players like Troy Deeney and Marcus Rashford. Stay tuned for some listener questions, a preview of the GW9 fixture list, and much more. Hail Cheaters.
In many ways a difficult and frustrating week, which ended on a high note. Before the week started I was tossing up bringing in the likes of Bellerin, Pieters, Walcott and Snodgrass in various combinations. By Saturday afternoon I was wishing I had, rather than the waiting move of taking out Capoue to free up money, and saving the other free.
However a brighter Sunday followed, thanks to Holebas, and then the equally satisfying clean sheets for Valencia and Lovren. Valencia in particular, who had been the defender earmarked for an outward transfer. Now he can happily stay, and with a home tie against Burnley in Two weeks prospects look good.
The final total was Fifty Two points, which looked impossible after the dreadful Saturday. When the captain scores minus Two then have to be satisfied with the final total.
The captain challenge
The Eight week form tables provided the best captain this week. The tables highlighted Southampton as the team most likely to score goals, and Austin obliged with Two of them
The overall lead in the competition has now gone to Bonkers. The Robot stormed into the lead with Costa proving a goal and maximum bonus. The Robot has been supplying impressive differentials all season, and is out pointing both the bookies and the Two polls
Fifty Eight points for the robot’s team, had a big saturday but failed to follow it up. Ibrahimovic Again frustrating his owners, this time with a poor display. Having updated the Six week rankings Ibrahimovic now slides all the way from Third to Eleventh behind the likes of Wilson and Austin
Overall the robot’s team is still under performing, and could do with a few more decent weeks.
With Two free transfers I have moved early this week. Sterling has already gone, replaced by Walcott. While Antonio will also be departing, maybe as soon as tonight.
Allen may be coming in as a Fourth midfielder, not for long, but just to ride the form and financial wave. He is in the form of his life and with Hull and Swansea up next he should see some serious price rises, and may even make some more points playing in the number Ten role
The maths are compelling
Antonio has been hit by a perfect storm, not only has he been moved to wing back, but Walcott has made himself almost essential, combine that with a brace from Allen and it is understandable why he is being sold.
I was not as worried about the move to wingback as some others, and would have been prepared to keep IF I thought the price would only fall the once. However it is looking very likely he may fall twice.
Lets do the math. Antonio drops 0.2 while over the next Seven days Allen rises Four times. Three this week and once next. So that is a 0.2 profit on selling. That is a difference of 0.4 which for holding Allen for a couple of weeks looks very tempting
Add to this the fact he is in the form of his life, scoring for both club and country, and it looks a very decent train to board. 70,000 have already made the leap this week, and it is only Monday evening.
Who knows there may even be some points in it. Even if there are no points, an extra 0.4 to play with over the rest of the season is not to be sniffed at. It is difficult to put a point value on 0.4 extra over 30 weeks, but it has to be worth something.
Even if not buying Allen I believe Antonio now has to go regardless of fixture. Losing a possible 0.2 is too much, it is not easy to recover that sort of loss. Alternatives look to be doubling up on the Liverpool midfield, risking rotation with a Tottenham mid or going for Arnautovic although he is currently on Four yellows.
Plans for the week
The Robot’s captain picks will be up next, you have probably already guessed who comes out top, but it remains to be seen if the polls will have as much faith in the top pick.
The form tables had a good week and they will be back. It looks like there could be few clean sheets this week as many scores are low on the tables.
The Six week projections have also been updated, I will do an article on them. There wil also be an update on some of the Hub competitions such as the Simon Humber trophy
After much deliberation I declined to use both the free transfers and did some housekeeping on the team structure. Selling Capoue to Hojberg frees up half a Million for later use.
I could just not settle on transfers this week so followed the maxim, if in doubt do nowt. I looked at taking out Antonio, however it would have looked very silly if he scores this week, and his stats are at least as good as any potential replacements
Aa usual saving the extra free is a good comfort blanket, and hopefully there will be moves I can make with conviction, as this week was filled with indecision.
Also had no clue who to captain, in the end it went on Aguero, however its a horrible week, so much uncertainty over starts etc.
The captain challenge
We have a very interesting situation this week, big differences of opinion. The Two main polls are very different. Fantasy scout has come out steongly in favour of Sanchez 34% to the 23% of Aguero.
Transfer Hub poll has Aguero ahead on 31% and Sanchez on 28%. Quite an unusual situation. It remains to be seen which one comes out on top.
The robot has not chosen either of them, and has Costa as the clear pick. Right now with the uncertainty I am feeling towards both Aguero and Sanchez I wish Costa was in my own team as would happily give him the armband
The bookies are unanimous in giving Aguero the best chance of being on the scoresheet, while the various firms have differing opinions on the lesser lights. The odds used for this competition are those of William Hill. The bookies are currently leading the competition.
playing the worst this week gives Stoke the honour, although it is debatable which one of these Two teams is actually the worst. Arnautovic is the pick here.
The form tables highlighted Southampton as having the best scoring opportunities this week, and they are packed with decent fantasy options. Just a shame about the rest of their fixtures. Austin is the captain representing the tables this week.
The Robot had Two free transfers this week, and as Lallana was flagged and unlikely to start he was taken out and replaced by the highest ranked affordable option on its Six week rankings. It so happened that was Milner, so a fairly sideways transfer there.
Its team actually looks very good this week, despite no Arsenal coverage. Perhaps Hazard will come roaring back to life, who knows.
After enjoying the weeks break, it is time to start considering the forthcoming Gameweek Eight. Lets begin with a look at the Eight week scoring tables, to identify likely profitable fixtures.
Southampton lead the way this week. While Burnley are a fortress at home, so far this season they have conceded Three in each of their away matches.
The Liverpool match is interesting as it pairs a very high scoring team against quite a mean defence. Liverpool have been scoring for fun, but can they do this against Man U ?
At the other end of the table, Tottenham appear to have the best chance of an away clean sheet, while Pickford owners also have some cause for optimism, however that is mainly based on Stokes poor scoring record rather than Sunderland’s ability to keep clean sheets.
Looking at the scoring chances for the away sides it looks as if they will mainly struggle for goals this week. The top score is only 27 which is very low. Normally a score over 30 is a good indicator of goals
Surprisingly Sunderland are considered the most likely to score, based on Stokes horrendous ability to concede at home. With Defoe performing so well away from home, he could be one to watch this weekend.
At the other end of the table it looks as if Man U, Burnley, Swansea and Everton may all struggle to score. Liverpool despite being perceived as a poor defensive team have only conceded Seven goals in their last Eight home matches, while Utd have hardly been prolific away from home.
Personally I think Arsenal and Southampton look the Two standouts for the clean sheets this week. both defences are in form, against sides that struggle to score on the road.
Bonkers captain picks
Here is a reminder of this weeks captain pick. The Robot prefers Costa over Sanchez and Aguero, who are both currenltly in South America. Walcott looks to b the best differential pick this week.